Marketing activity influences almost 40% of EV test drives: Prophet, BYD Australia and Seven Network MMM study

320,000 test drives analysed; $20 million-plus media investment modelled; 63% of EV demand shaped by brand effect and broader macro-economic factors

15 June 2026: Marketing activity directly influences almost 40% of EV test drives, while efficiency differences of up to 20x were identified across the media channel mix, a new groundbreaking analysis from Prophet,  BYD Australia and the Seven Network has uncovered. 

Prophet modelled more than 320,000 test drives and over $20 million in media investment, as part of its Cross Channel Demand Effectiveness Study with the Seven Network, to understand how advertising, macroeconomic conditions and consumer behaviour interact to shape electric vehicle demand in Australia. 

Following the SCA and Seven merger, the study was expanded to include audio advertising, providing additional insight into the impact of cross-channel media investment. The findings demonstrate the compounding effect of sustained media investment over time, rather than viewing media as an isolated conversion event. While macroeconomic conditions also significantly influenced EV demand, the study demonstrated that sustained media investment created both immediate demand and longer-term brand effects, reinforcing the importance of measuring advertising’s total contribution rather than attributing value solely to last-click conversions. 

BYD partnered with Prophet to also understand which media channels were genuinely creating demand, not simply receiving credit for conversion. Prophet built a digital clone of the BYD business, an exact digital replica of BYD’s DNA, enabling it to conduct hypothetical simulations and experiments before implementing changes and allocating budget in the real world.

Efficiency differences of up to 20x were identified across the media mix, with some channels delivering substantially more demand per dollar than others.

High-reach formats, including linear TV, BVOD and out-of-home, delivered the strongest contribution to demand creation, reinforcing BYD’s presence long before consumers entered active purchase consideration. Audio,  including SCA’s Hit and Triple M linear and digital networks and LiSTNR, generated approximately three times its proportional contribution to demand, despite receiving a smaller share of investment.

The analysis found that the channels creating demand were not always those receiving credit for conversion. This reinforces growing industry concerns that platform-level attribution is failing to capture how demand is actually created across channels.

Prophet incorporates more than 86,000 macroeconomic variables into its model via its world-leading Prophet Library, including fuel prices, consumer confidence and employment trends, allowing BYD to isolate the impact of media from the broader macro forces shaping EV demand.

The impact of external economic forces, including consumer confidence and employment trends, were quantified against purchase intent, reinforcing that 63% of EV demand is shaped by broader economic confidence, not just media activity alone.

The model now allows BYD to test future investment decisions before marketing budget is committed, simulating how the media mix, market conditions and consumer demand may influence future performance. Rather than optimising media channels in isolation, investment decisions can be evaluated against the behaviour of the broader consumer demand system.

Because Prophet operates independently of media buying, the model has no commercial incentive to favour any channel – a structural separation between measurement and execution that was identified as essential to the integrity of the analysis.

Prophet CEO, Jordan Taylor-Bartels, said: “Marketing measurement has been noisy for a long time. A digital clone of a business cuts through it. BYD now has a replica model of its business that ingests 86,000 macro signals – and every dollar of media and the full behavioural mix – and answers the only question that matters: ‘what happens if we do this instead?’ The 20x efficiency gap we uncovered  wasn’t a finding, it was a starting point.”

BYD Chief Marketing Officer, Kate Hornstein, said: “As a new entrant, growth has never been about simply making noise. It’s about building confidence in a category evolving at speed. Prophet helped provide a clearer understanding of what broader market influences are driving behaviour, and where brand, media and customer intent are working together. That clarity allows us to make smarter investment decisions, strengthen our connection with Australian customers, and continue pushing the category forward.”

The analysis for BYD forms part of Prophet’s cross-channel demand effectiveness partnership with the Seven Network, which has seen Prophet’s MMM platform deployed across Seven’s and SCA’s assets to give brands a more accurate and complete measure of cross-channel effectiveness. 

As part of this groundbreaking partnership, Seven provided an exclusive opportunity for a number of brands to participate in an innovative marketing initiative. The selected brands each received $2 million worth of advertising inventory across Seven.  In addition, Seven offset part of the cost of Prophet’s platform by providing additional media inventory.

Seven Network National Television Sales Director, Katie Finney, said: “Our partnership with Prophet has allowed us to deliver an exclusive opportunity for brands to optimise their marketing strategies with the support of Seven’s extensive total TV and SCA’s audio advertising assets. For BYD, it has provided valuable insights into the effectiveness of incorporating total TV into brands’ marketing plans, ultimately driving real, measurable results – with no more guesswork.”

Southern Cross Media Group  Chief Commercial Officer, Seb Rennie, said: “These results reinforce the powerful role audio and television can play together in driving measurable outcomes for brands. As SCA and Seven continue to come together, we’re incredibly excited by the opportunities this unlocks for advertisers – combining premium content, scaled audiences and stronger cross-platform capability across audio and TV. The BYD study is a brilliant example of the impact a connected ecosystem can deliver, and we see enormous potential for more brands to benefit from this approach moving forward.” 

Additional cross-channel effectiveness studies with a number of Australian brands are currently underway as part of the expanded partnership between Prophet, Seven and SCA. 

Prophet is Australia’s leading decision intelligence platform, working with leading brands across Australia and internationally, including Rest, Suzuki, TAL and Vocus, among others. It was also awarded the 2025 AFR BOSS Most Innovative Company in the Media and Marketing category. 

Prophet is growing rapidly and has recently appointed former Suncorp Manager of Marketing Science, Rachel Scott, as its Head of Marketing Science, as well as Vice President of Sales and Partnerships, James Sawyer, who was the company’s foundational hire in Sydney.  The company also expanded its Advisory Board with the appointment of Phil Davis, Senior Vice President Global GTM at Google Cloud, and Professor Andrew Gelman of Columbia University, one of the world’s leading authorities in Bayesian statistics and data modelling, joining the board.